Quantitative Indicators
Borrowing equity-trading toolkit (SMA / EMA / RSI / Bollinger / MACD) and applying it to monthly housing prices. Useful for spotting overheated or oversold conditions.
๐ Price + Moving Averages + Bollinger Bands
SMA(12) = simple 12-month moving average (the trend).
EMA(12) = exponentially weighted (reacts faster to recent change).
Bollinger(20, 2ฯ) = price ยฑ 2 standard deviations over 20 months โ
when price tags upper band, market is hot; lower band tags often mark cool windows.
๐ก๏ธ RSI (14)
Relative Strength Index. 70+ = overbought (frothy market), 30- = oversold (potentially undervalued).
Calculated on the median sale series.
โก MACD (12, 26, 9)
Difference between two EMAs (fast 12 - slow 26) and its signal line (9).
Histogram crossing zero from below = momentum shift up; crossing from above = down.
๐ Year-over-Year price change (%) + 12M smoothed
The most-asked question: "Are prices up or down vs last year, and is that trend accelerating?"
Bars = raw monthly YoY. Line = 12-month rolling average to smooth noise.
๐ฏ Opportunity Score โ full history with regime shading
Same opportunity score as elsewhere, with shading: green = score > 60 buyer-friendly, red = score < 30 seller-frenzy.